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Renewable power is expected to rise to 25% of gross power generation worldwide in 2018, with a substantial increase in onshore wind generation (IEA, 2013). The share of non-hydro renewable power, mainly wind and solar power, is forecasted to increase to 8% of gross generation in 2018, up from 4% in 2011 and 2% in 2006. One of the reasons for the fast growth in renewable energy is the raising amount of public funds destined to promote cleaner technologies. In the United States, the federal government and many states have adopted several renewable energy policies to promote the development of renewable energy.

Recent economic studies argue that wind and solar energy create new challenges (Joskow 2011; Borenstein 2012; Baker et al., 2013). First, renewable energy is "intermittent"; it supplies electricity in a volatile and non-controllable fashion. For example, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, and other weather characteristics, affect wind and solar generation. As a result, renewable energy generally cannot provide a stable and continuous amount of electricity to a grid system. Second, it is difficult to exactly predict production from renewable sources in advance, creating substantial uncertainty. Uncertainty in production is particularly problematic in electricity markets because electricity is not a commodity that can be easily stored, and therefore the system operator needs to ensure that demand and supply are balanced at any given time. As the share of renewable energy is growing, intermittency and uncertainty are becoming a concern to regulators and market participants.

This research program will develop new theoretical and empirical strategies to assess the impact of renewable energy. The goal is to empirically quantify the impact of renewable energy by analyzing recent relevant experiences in wind and solar integration. Given the practical relevance of this effort, the principal investigator will develop open-access programs to enable other researchers to work with the data.

The project consists of three parts. First, the PI will construct a series of new datasets and the use of methods of applied microeconomics to disentangle the effects of renewable energy to the costs of electricity. This will allow the measurement of the ex-post benefits and costs of renewable energy in a context were renewable penetration is very large. These measurements can be an important complement to simulation studies, which are typically performed ex-ante. For example, this study can help identify in which dimensions simulation models work, and in which dimensions they could be improved.

Second, the PI will incorporate these data into a series of research projects to test and evaluate the performance of electricity markets at integrating renewable energy. In particular, the PI proposes to develop a theoretical and empirical framework that will allow us to understand how to better integrate renewable energy in a market-based environment. These frameworks will rely on game-theoretic models of competition, and will contribute to the literature in empirical industrial organization. The project will emphasize the interaction of renewable producers with pre-existing distortions in the market, such as market power or information externalities. These effects have been typically overlooked in the literature, which is often based on centralized planning models. However, evidence suggests that economic incentives drive important daily "biases" in wind planning that we commonly observe in electricity markets (for example, in California, New England or Spain).

Third, the PI will develop teaching materials to provide both master and PhD students with the necessary tools to model and understand electricity markets. Electricity is a key input to the production of goods and services. However, students are oftentimes overwhelmed by the complexity of how electricity markets are organized. These classes and materials will encourage future work in this area, which is expected to become even more relevant as we search for economic solutions to the energy challenge.